Ituano 1–2 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ituano

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Criciuma

Lucas Dias 85'

Rodrigo Fagundes 90+1'

Léo Costa 52'

7/2/2022

Serie B · Round 16Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ituano41%

×Draw30%

Criciuma29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItuanoExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.89

Ituano

1.13

Criciuma

0.89

Ituano creates 27% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 87 away

1.11

creates per match

0.90

0.88

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Ituano

1.11

Criciuma

0.90

allows per match

Ituano

0.88

Criciuma

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituano+0.00on par

Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ituano or draw

71%

Ituano or Criciuma

70%

Draw or Criciuma

59%

Winning margin

Ituano wins by 2+

17%

Criciuma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ituano 1+ goals

68%

Ituano 2+ goals

31%

Ituano 3+ goals

11%

Criciuma 1+ goals

59%

Criciuma 2+ goals

22%

Criciuma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ituano (draw refunded)

59%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano attack 1.11 + Criciuma defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Criciuma attack 0.90 + Ituano defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ituano scores more

41%

level

30%

Criciuma scores more

29%

Ituano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ituano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Gustavo

Criciuma · G

7.9

Match Events

25'

Caique

45+2'

Rafael EliasGoal cancelled

48'

Cristovam

52'

Léo Costa↳ Arilson

59'

Lucas Siqueira← Gerson Magrão

59'

Neto Berola← Rafael Pereira

60'

Rodrigo Fagundes

70'

João Victor← Kaio Mendes

70'

Roberto← Mário Sérgio

73'

Hygor← Lucas

73'

Claudinho← Cristovam

73'

Marcos Serrato← Rômulo

74'

Chrigor← Rafael Elias

80'

Aylon

83'

Bernardo Schappo

85'

Lucas Dias

90+3'

Rodrigo FagundesGoal confirmed

90+1'

Fellipe Mateus← Arilson

90+1'

Thiago Alagoano← Caio Dantas

90+1'

Rodrigo Fagundes↳ Claudinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ItuanoCriciuma

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots14

8Corners5

19Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots14

7On Target4

4Off Target4

4Blocked6

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

359Total Passes352

268Accurate Passes253

75%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

19Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

Serie B: Ituano 1–2 Criciuma

Criciuma beat Ituano 2-1 in Serie B on July 2, 2022.

Goals: Léo Costa (52'), Lucas Dias (85'), Rodrigo Fagundes (90+1').

Ituano controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior in Itu, São Paulo.

Ituano vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Ituano 1–2 Criciuma