Criciuma 0–0 Ituano: Result & Stats | Serie C

Criciuma

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ituano

10/31/2021

Serie C · Promotion Round - 5Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Criciuma46%

×Draw28%

Ituano26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchItuano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.95

Criciuma

1.35

Ituano

0.95

Criciuma creates 42% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 39 away

1.50

creates per match

1.10

0.80

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Criciuma

1.50

Ituano

1.10

allows per match

Criciuma

0.80

Ituano

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par

Ituano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Ituano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

74%

Criciuma or Ituano

72%

Draw or Ituano

54%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

22%

Ituano wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

74%

Criciuma 2+ goals

39%

Criciuma 3+ goals

15%

Ituano 1+ goals

61%

Ituano 2+ goals

25%

Ituano 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

64%

Ituano (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Ituano away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.21 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.50 + Ituano defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ituano attack 1.10 + Criciuma defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Criciuma scores more

46%

level

28%

Ituano scores more

26%

Criciuma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Claudinho

45'

Claudinho

46'

Alemão Teixeira← Léo Costa

46'

Hygor← Henan

46'

J. Roa Jiménez← Igor Henrique

46'

Kaio Mendes← Bruno Lima

73'

Fernandinho← João Victor

75'

Arilson← Fellipe Mateus

75'

Pedro Rosa← Hélder

80'

Bernardo Schappo← Lucas Nathan

81'

Eduardo← Dudu Vieira

89'

Iago← Rhuan

Criciuma

Ituano

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Cláudio Tencati

46'▲Alemão Teixeira←▼Léo Costa

46'▲Hygor←▼Henan

75'▲Arilson←▼Fellipe Mateus

75'▲Pedro Rosa←▼Hélder

81'▲Eduardo←▼Dudu Vieira

Criciuma substitutes

TeixeiraHygorArilsonRosaEduardoAlissonFigueiredoGeníllsonJesséMinhoAreiasTigrão

Manager: Mazola Júnior

46'▲J. Roa Jiménez←▼Igor Henrique

46'▲Kaio Mendes←▼Bruno Lima

73'▲Fernandinho←▼João Victor

80'▲Bernardo Schappo←▼Lucas Nathan

89'▲Iago←▼Rhuan

Ituano substitutes

JiménezMendesFernandinhoSchappoIagoEdsonDiasLuizinhoMineiroAluísioVitor