Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Istogu vs Feronikeli — Cup 2019

Istogu
Istogu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Feronikeli
Feronikeliadvanced
12/4/2024CupCup · Round of 32Stadiumi Demush Mavraj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Istogu18%
×Draw25%
Feronikeli57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istogu
0.78
Feronikeli
1.62

Feronikeli creates 108% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Istogu
1.00
Feronikeli
1.57

allows per match

Istogu
1.67
Feronikeli
0.57

finishing

Istogu+0.00on par
Feronikeli+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istogu ↓

Feronikeli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Istogu or draw
43%
Istogu or Feronikeli
75%
Draw or Feronikeli
82%

Winning margin

Istogu wins by 2+
5%
Feronikeli wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Istogu 1+ goals
54%
Istogu 2+ goals
18%
Istogu 3+ goals
4%
Feronikeli 1+ goals
80%
Feronikeli 2+ goals
48%
Feronikeli 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Istogu (draw refunded)
24%
Feronikeli (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istogu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Feronikeli away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istogu attack 1.00 + Feronikeli defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Feronikeli attack 1.57 + Istogu defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Istogu scores more
18%
level
25%
Feronikeli scores more
57%

Feronikeli at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Feronikeli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Istogu vs Feronikeli

Feronikeli beat Istogu 2-1 in Cup on December 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Demush Mavraj in Istog.