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Feronikeli vs Istogu — Cup 2019

Feronikeli
Feronikeliadvanced
FT
2 – 0
Istogu
Istogu
12/6/2023CupCup · Round of 32Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Feronikeli55%
×Draw25%
Istogu20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feronikeli
1.63
Istogu
0.88

Feronikeli creates 85% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Feronikeli
2.00
Istogu
0.75

allows per match

Feronikeli
1.00
Istogu
1.25

finishing

Feronikeli+0.00on par
Istogu+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feronikeli ↓

Istogu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Feronikeli or draw
80%
Feronikeli or Istogu
75%
Draw or Istogu
45%

Winning margin

Feronikeli wins by 2+
30%
Istogu wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Feronikeli 1+ goals
80%
Feronikeli 2+ goals
48%
Feronikeli 3+ goals
22%
Istogu 1+ goals
59%
Istogu 2+ goals
22%
Istogu 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Feronikeli (draw refunded)
73%
Istogu (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feronikeli at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Istogu away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feronikeli attack 2.00 + Istogu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Istogu attack 0.75 + Feronikeli defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Feronikeli scores more
55%
level
25%
Istogu scores more
20%

Feronikeli at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Feronikeli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feronikeli vs Istogu

Feronikeli beat Istogu 2-0 in Cup on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi in Glogovac.