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Feronikeli vs Istogu — Liga E Pare 2025

Feronikeli
Feronikeli
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Istogu
Istogu
5/3/2026Liga E PareLiga E Pare · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Feronikeli66%
×Draw20%
Istogu14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feronikeli
2.00
Istogu
0.77

Feronikeli creates 160% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Feronikeli
2.00
Istogu
1.06

allows per match

Feronikeli
0.47
Istogu
2.00

finishing

Feronikeli+0.00on par
Istogu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feronikeli ↓

Istogu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Feronikeli or draw
86%
Feronikeli or Istogu
80%
Draw or Istogu
34%

Winning margin

Feronikeli wins by 2+
41%
Istogu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Feronikeli 1+ goals
86%
Feronikeli 2+ goals
59%
Feronikeli 3+ goals
32%
Istogu 1+ goals
54%
Istogu 2+ goals
18%
Istogu 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Feronikeli (draw refunded)
83%
Istogu (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feronikeli at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Istogu away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feronikeli attack 2.00 + Istogu defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Istogu attack 1.06 + Feronikeli defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Feronikeli scores more
66%
level
20%
Istogu scores more
14%

Feronikeli at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Feronikeli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga E Pare: Feronikeli 3–1 Istogu

Feronikeli beat Istogu 3-1 in Liga E Pare on May 3, 2026.