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Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
12/20/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 15Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ironi Tiberias32%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Beer Sheva41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Tiberias
1.16
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.34

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 16% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 126 away

creates per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.30
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.38

allows per match

Ironi Tiberias
1.30
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.01

finishing

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par
Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Tiberias ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ironi Tiberias or draw
59%
Ironi Tiberias or Hapoel Beer Sheva
73%
Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva
68%

Winning margin

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
13%
Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
69%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
32%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
11%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
44%
Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Tiberias at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.01 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.30 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.38 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ironi Tiberias scores more
32%
level
27%
Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
41%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Ironi Tiberias beat Hapoel Beer Sheva 3-0 in Ligat Ha'al on December 20, 2025.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Nof HaGalil.