Hapoel Beer Sheva 7–0 Ironi Tiberias

Hapoel Beer Sheva

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Ironi Tiberias

8/30/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Round 2Toto Turner Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva59%

×Draw23%

Ironi Tiberias18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Beer ShevaExpected goals in this matchIroni Tiberias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.91

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.84

Ironi Tiberias

0.91

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 102% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 33 away

1.92

creates per match

0.91

0.90

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.92

Ironi Tiberias

0.91

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

0.90

Ironi Tiberias

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Ironi Tiberias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw

82%

Hapoel Beer Sheva or Ironi Tiberias

77%

Draw or Ironi Tiberias

41%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

34%

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

84%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

55%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

28%

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals

60%

Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals

23%

Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

76%

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.90 · 126 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.92 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ironi Tiberias attack 0.91 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

59%

level

23%

Ironi Tiberias scores more

18%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff