Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–0 Ironi Tiberias

Hapoel Beer Sheva

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ironi Tiberias

2/28/2024

State Cup · Round of 16Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva34%

×Draw28%

Ironi Tiberias38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Beer ShevaExpected goals in this matchIroni Tiberias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.20

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.11

Ironi Tiberias

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.89

creates per match

1.83

0.56

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.89

Ironi Tiberias

1.83

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

0.56

Ironi Tiberias

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Ironi Tiberias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw

62%

Hapoel Beer Sheva or Ironi Tiberias

72%

Draw or Ironi Tiberias

66%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

13%

Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

67%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

30%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

10%

Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals

70%

Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals

34%

Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

47%

Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.89 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.83 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

34%

level

28%

Ironi Tiberias scores more

38%

Ironi Tiberias at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff