Ironi Nesher 3–3 Hapoel Kfar Kana: Result & Stats

Ironi Nesher

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Hapoel Kfar Kana

4/19/2024

League #496 · North - 28Nesher Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ironi Nesher45%

×Draw25%

Hapoel Kfar Kana31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi NesherExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kfar Kana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.27

Ironi Nesher

1.58

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.27

Ironi Nesher creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 23 away

1.46

creates per match

1.17

1.38

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Ironi Nesher

1.46

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.17

allows per match

Ironi Nesher

1.38

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Nesher+0.00on par

Hapoel Kfar Kana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Nesher ↓

Hapoel Kfar Kana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ironi Nesher or draw

69%

Ironi Nesher or Hapoel Kfar Kana

75%

Draw or Hapoel Kfar Kana

55%

Winning margin

Ironi Nesher wins by 2+

23%

Hapoel Kfar Kana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ironi Nesher 1+ goals

79%

Ironi Nesher 2+ goals

47%

Ironi Nesher 3+ goals

21%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ironi Nesher (draw refunded)

59%

Hapoel Kfar Kana (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Nesher at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Hapoel Kfar Kana away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Nesher attack 1.46 + Hapoel Kfar Kana defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hapoel Kfar Kana attack 1.17 + Ironi Nesher defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ironi Nesher scores more

45%

level

25%

Hapoel Kfar Kana scores more

31%

Ironi Nesher at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ironi Nesher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff