Ironi Nesher 1–0 Hapoel Kfar Kana: Result & Stats

Ironi Nesher

FT

1 – 0

Hapoel Kfar Kana

9/1/2023

State Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Kiryat Yam Synthetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ironi Nesher60%

×Draw21%

Hapoel Kfar Kana19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi NesherExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kfar Kana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.04

Ironi Nesher

2.04

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.04

Ironi Nesher creates 96% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

0.75

1.33

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Ironi Nesher

2.33

Hapoel Kfar Kana

0.75

allows per match

Ironi Nesher

1.33

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Nesher+0.00on par

Hapoel Kfar Kana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Nesher ↓

Hapoel Kfar Kana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ironi Nesher or draw

81%

Ironi Nesher or Hapoel Kfar Kana

79%

Draw or Hapoel Kfar Kana

40%

Winning margin

Ironi Nesher wins by 2+

37%

Hapoel Kfar Kana wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ironi Nesher 1+ goals

87%

Ironi Nesher 2+ goals

60%

Ironi Nesher 3+ goals

33%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 1+ goals

65%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 2+ goals

28%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ironi Nesher (draw refunded)

76%

Hapoel Kfar Kana (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Nesher at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Hapoel Kfar Kana away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Nesher attack 2.33 + Hapoel Kfar Kana defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Hapoel Kfar Kana attack 0.75 + Ironi Nesher defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ironi Nesher scores more

60%

level

21%

Hapoel Kfar Kana scores more

19%

Ironi Nesher at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ironi Nesher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff