Hapoel Kfar Kana 2–1 Ironi Nesher: Result & Stats

Hapoel Kfar Kana

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ironi Nesher

2/2/2024

League #496 · North - 13Kfar Kana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Kana42%

×Draw23%

Ironi Nesher36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Kfar KanaExpected goals in this matchIroni Nesher

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.63

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.78

Ironi Nesher

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

1.29

creates per match

1.64

1.62

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.29

Ironi Nesher

1.64

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.62

Ironi Nesher

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Kana+0.00on par

Ironi Nesher+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Kana ↓

Ironi Nesher →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Kana or draw

64%

Hapoel Kfar Kana or Ironi Nesher

77%

Draw or Ironi Nesher

58%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Kana wins by 2+

22%

Ironi Nesher wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Kana 1+ goals

83%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 2+ goals

53%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 3+ goals

26%

Ironi Nesher 1+ goals

80%

Ironi Nesher 2+ goals

48%

Ironi Nesher 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Kana (draw refunded)

54%

Ironi Nesher (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Kana at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Ironi Nesher away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Kana attack 1.29 + Ironi Nesher defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ironi Nesher attack 1.64 + Hapoel Kfar Kana defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Kfar Kana scores more

42%

level

23%

Ironi Nesher scores more

36%

Hapoel Kfar Kana at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Kana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff