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Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden — League #496 2026

Ironi Modi'in
Ironi Modi'in
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
O. Darba 90+5'
Y. G. Benbenisti 47'
E. Komisarov 45+3'
2/24/2023League #496League #496 · South - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ironi Modi'in29%
×Draw29%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Modi'in
0.95
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.20

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 29 away

creates per match

Ironi Modi'in
0.00
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.07

allows per match

Ironi Modi'in
1.33
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.90

finishing

Ironi Modi'in+0.00on par
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Modi'in ↓

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ironi Modi'in or draw
58%
Ironi Modi'in or Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
71%
Draw or Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
71%

Winning margin

Ironi Modi'in wins by 2+
10%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ironi Modi'in 1+ goals
61%
Ironi Modi'in 2+ goals
25%
Ironi Modi'in 3+ goals
7%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ironi Modi'in (draw refunded)
41%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Modi'in at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Modi'in attack 0.00 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 1.07 + Ironi Modi'in defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ironi Modi'in scores more
29%
level
29%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more
42%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
45+3'
E. Komisarov
47'
Y. G. Benbenisti
90+5'
O. Darba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Ironi Modi'in 0–3 Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden beat Ironi Modi'in 3-0 in League #496 on February 24, 2023.

Goals: E. Komisarov (45+3'), Y. G. Benbenisti (47'), O. Darba (90+5').