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Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden vs Ironi Modi'in — League #496 2026

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ironi Modi'in
Ironi Modi'in
E. Avihu 73'
M. Ben Ami 63'
M. Khoury 36'
12/12/2023League #496League #496 · South - 5Moshava Training Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden25%
×Draw25%
Ironi Modi'in51%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.07
Ironi Modi'in
1.65

Ironi Modi'in creates 54% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
0.89
Ironi Modi'in
1.50

allows per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.79
Ironi Modi'in
1.25

finishing

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par
Ironi Modi'in+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden ↓

Ironi Modi'in →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or draw
49%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or Ironi Modi'in
75%
Draw or Ironi Modi'in
75%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+
9%
Ironi Modi'in wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals
66%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals
29%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals
9%
Ironi Modi'in 1+ goals
81%
Ironi Modi'in 2+ goals
49%
Ironi Modi'in 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)
33%
Ironi Modi'in (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

Ironi Modi'in away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 0.89 + Ironi Modi'in defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Ironi Modi'in attack 1.50 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more
25%
level
25%
Ironi Modi'in scores more
51%

Ironi Modi'in at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ironi Modi'in will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
M. Khoury
63'
M. Ben Ami
73'
E. Avihu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden vs Ironi Modi'in

Ironi Modi'in beat Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3-0 in League #496 on December 12, 2023.

Goals: M. Khoury (36'), M. Ben Ami (63'), E. Avihu (73').

The match was played at Moshava Training Field in Petach-Tikva.