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Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden — State Cup 2019

Ironi Modi'in
Ironi Modi'in
FT
0 – 1
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
9/12/2022State CupState Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Modi'in Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ironi Modi'in18%
×Draw20%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
2.17

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden creates 101% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ironi Modi'in
0.67
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.33

allows per match

Ironi Modi'in
3.00
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.50

finishing

Ironi Modi'in+0.00on par
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Modi'in ↓

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ironi Modi'in or draw
38%
Ironi Modi'in or Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
80%
Draw or Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
82%

Winning margin

Ironi Modi'in wins by 2+
7%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Ironi Modi'in 1+ goals
66%
Ironi Modi'in 2+ goals
29%
Ironi Modi'in 3+ goals
10%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals
89%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals
64%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Ironi Modi'in (draw refunded)
23%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Modi'in at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Modi'in attack 0.67 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 1.33 + Ironi Modi'in defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ironi Modi'in scores more
18%
level
20%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more
62%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden beat Ironi Modi'in 1-0 in State Cup on September 12, 2022.

The match was played at Modi'in Municipal Stadium in Modi'in Makabim-Re'ut.