Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Maccabi Netanya

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Maccabi Netanya

A. Ugarriza 66'

4/29/2026

Ligat Ha'al · Relegation Group - 29Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona41%

×Draw25%

Maccabi Netanya34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi Kiryat ShmonaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Netanya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.31

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.46

Maccabi Netanya

1.31

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 11% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 105 away

1.26

creates per match

1.33

1.30

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.26

Maccabi Netanya

1.33

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.30

Maccabi Netanya

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Maccabi Netanya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw

66%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Maccabi Netanya

75%

Draw or Maccabi Netanya

59%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

20%

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

77%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

43%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

18%

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals

73%

Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals

38%

Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

55%

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 87 matches

Maccabi Netanya away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.66 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.26 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.33 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

41%

level

25%

Maccabi Netanya scores more

34%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

D. Tenenbaum

Ironi Kiryat Shmona · G

8.5

Match Events

26'

Bilal Shaheen

36'

Aviv Avraham

37'

Aviv AvrahamCard reviewed

45+4'

Karm Jaber

46'

Y. Mordechai← W. M. Alli

46'

M. Levi← M. Plakushchenko

58'

A. Sharetzky← C. Martinez

58'

O. Benbenishti← A. Avraham

66'

A. Ugarriza

71'

Pedrinho← Heriberto Tavares

71'

R. Keller← B. Zaarura

72'

W. Cyprien← K. Jaber

75'

J. Al Halabi← F. Pacheco

84'

I. Sholmyster← A. Ugarriza

85'

Aziz Ouattara Mohammed

90+4'

G. Diomande← A. Ouattara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IroniMaccabi

Overview

36%Possession64%

13Total Shots22

4Corners3

7Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots22

7On Target5

3Off Target8

3Blocked9

7Inside Box11

6Outside Box11

Passing

36%Possession64%

323Total Passes569

265Accurate Passes507

82%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0