Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–1 Maccabi Netanya

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Maccabi Netanya

D. Dapaah 90+1'

1/5/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Round 17Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona41%

×Draw25%

Maccabi Netanya34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi Kiryat ShmonaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Netanya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.31

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.46

Maccabi Netanya

1.31

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 11% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 105 away

1.26

creates per match

1.33

1.30

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.26

Maccabi Netanya

1.33

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.30

Maccabi Netanya

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Maccabi Netanya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw

66%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Maccabi Netanya

75%

Draw or Maccabi Netanya

59%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

20%

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

77%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

43%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

18%

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals

73%

Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals

38%

Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

55%

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 87 matches

Maccabi Netanya away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.66 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.26 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.33 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

41%

level

25%

Maccabi Netanya scores more

34%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Tzur

Ironi Kiryat Shmona · G

7.7

Match Events

12'

Nadav Aviv Niddam

27'

Sekou Tidiany Bangoura

39'

B. Cohen← O. Bilu

45+3'

Bar Cohen

56'

M. Plakushchenko← L. Halaf

57'

D. Dego← N. Niddam

69'

L. Cohen← Y. Mordechai

71'

D. Dapaah← I. Shviro

85'

B. Shaheen← R. Zikri

90+1'

D. Dapaah↳ Heriberto Tavares

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IroniMaccabi

Overview

41%Possession59%

7Total Shots13

6Corners4

8Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots13

4On Target5

3Off Target5

0Blocked3

3Inside Box5

4Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

313Total Passes467

231Accurate Passes391

74%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1