Ipswich 3–0 Hull City: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hull City

M. Harness 65'

C. Chaplin 41'

W. Burns 5'

10/3/2023

Championship · Round 10Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Ipswich57%

×Draw24%

Hull City20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.93

Ipswich

1.75

Hull City

0.93

Ipswich creates 88% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

1.90

creates per match

1.23

0.63

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Ipswich

1.90

Hull City

1.23

allows per match

Ipswich

0.63

Hull City

1.59

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.27scores more

Hull City-0.06on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

80%

Ipswich or Hull City

76%

Draw or Hull City

43%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

32%

Hull City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

83%

Ipswich 2+ goals

52%

Ipswich 3+ goals

25%

Hull City 1+ goals

61%

Hull City 2+ goals

24%

Hull City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

74%

Hull City (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.63 · 12 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.59 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.90 + Hull City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.75

Hull City attack 1.23 + Ipswich defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ipswich scores more

57%

level

24%

Hull City scores more

20%

Ipswich at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Davis

Ipswich · D

8.9

Match Events

5'

W. Burns↳ L. Davis

41'

C. Chaplin↳ L. Davis

46'

S. Twine← Adama Noss Traoré

58'

Rúben Vinagre← L. Coyle

65'

M. Harness↳ G. Hirst

68'

D. Sinik← A. Connolly

69'

S. McLoughlin← J. Seri

69'

G. Docherty← T. Morton

80'

K. Jackson← W. Burns

81'

F. Ladapo← G. Hirst

81'

O. Hutchinson← C. Chaplin

81'

D. Scarlett← M. Harness

90'

J. Taylor← M. Luongo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichHull

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots13

0.94Expected Goals (xG)0.89

6Corners5

16Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots13

6On Target6

5Off Target4

3Blocked3

8Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

495Total Passes510

431Accurate Passes443

87%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls11

1Offsides1