Hull City 3–3 Ipswich: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ipswich

N. Ohio 87'

L. Delap 56'

O. Tufan 40'

O. Hutchinson 67', 45+2'

G. Hirst 19'

4/27/2024

Championship · Round 45The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Hull City33%

×Draw25%

Ipswich41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.50

Hull City

1.32

Ipswich

1.50

Ipswich creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 21 away

1.40

creates per match

1.55

1.45

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Hull City

1.40

Ipswich

1.55

allows per match

Hull City

1.45

Ipswich

1.25

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Hull City+0.01on par

Ipswich+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

59%

Hull City or Ipswich

75%

Draw or Ipswich

67%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

15%

Ipswich wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

73%

Hull City 2+ goals

38%

Hull City 3+ goals

15%

Ipswich 1+ goals

78%

Ipswich 2+ goals

44%

Ipswich 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

45%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.40 + Ipswich defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ipswich attack 1.55 + Hull City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hull City scores more

33%

level

25%

Ipswich scores more

41%

Ipswich at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

O. Hutchinson

Ipswich · M

8.9

Match Events

19'

G. Hirst

36'

Axel Tuanzebe

40'

O. Tufan↳ J. Seri

45+4'

Fabio Carvalho

45'

Wes Burns

45+2'

O. Hutchinson↳ L. Woolfenden

46'

L. Delap← T. Morton

54'

Massimo Luongo

56'

L. Delap↳ Fábio Carvalho

62'

K. Moore← G. Hirst

62'

J. Sarmiento← W. Burns

67'

O. Hutchinson↳ L. Davis

74'

N. Ohio← A. Ömür

76'

J. Taylor← M. Luongo

76'

L. Travis← C. Chaplin

81'

R. Giles← R. Slater

82'

H. Clarke← L. Davis

87'

N. Ohio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullIpswich

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots21

2.69Expected Goals (xG)2.15

6Corners8

13Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots21

7On Target11

4Off Target4

3Blocked6

12Inside Box12

2Outside Box9

Passing

59%Possession41%

516Total Passes351

432Accurate Passes277

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2