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Hull City vs Ipswich — League One 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ipswich
Ipswich
J. Norwood 15'
2/23/2021League OneLeague One · Round 31KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hull City46%
×Draw27%
Ipswich27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.36
Ipswich
0.97

Hull City creates 40% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.33
Ipswich
1.60

allows per match

Hull City
0.33
Ipswich
1.40

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
73%
Hull City or Ipswich
73%
Draw or Ipswich
54%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
22%
Ipswich wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
74%
Hull City 2+ goals
39%
Hull City 3+ goals
16%
Ipswich 1+ goals
62%
Ipswich 2+ goals
25%
Ipswich 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
63%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.33 + Ipswich defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Ipswich attack 1.60 + Hull City defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hull City scores more
46%
level
27%
Ipswich scores more
27%

Hull City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. NorwoodIpswichIpswich · F
7.9

Match Events

15'
J. Norwood↳ M. Kenlock
41'
Aristote Nsiala
46'
A. Jones← G. Whyte
46'
J. Magennis← D. Crowley
56'
Mallik Wilks
58'
Keanan Bennetts
69'
G. Edwards← A. Judge
77'
Myles Kenlock
82'
A. Drinan← J. Norwood
89'
Callum Elder
90+4'
J. Scott← M. Wilks
90'
J. Harrop← T. Parrott

Possession

58%Hull

Shots

6Hull

Pass accuracy

53%Hull

Statistics

HullIpswich
Overview
58%Possession42%
6Total Shots8
3Corners1
13Fouls14
Shots
6Total Shots8
0On Target2
4Off Target4
2Blocked2
5Inside Box6
1Outside Box2
Passing
58%Possession42%
498Total Passes352
383Accurate Passes236
77%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Hull City vs Ipswich

Ipswich beat Hull City 1-0 in League One on February 23, 2021.

Goals: J. Norwood (15').

Hull City controlled possession (58%) and registered 6 shots to 8.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.