Ipswich 2–2 Derby: Result & Stats | Championship

Ipswich

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Derby

J. Clarke 90' (pen)

J. Greaves 33'

R. Brewster 70'

C. Morris 50' (pen)

8/30/2025

Championship · Round 4Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Ipswich61%

×Draw22%

Derby16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.83

Ipswich

1.85

Derby

0.83

Ipswich creates 123% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.98

creates per match

1.05

0.61

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Ipswich

1.98

Derby

1.05

allows per match

Ipswich

0.61

Derby

1.72

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.11scores more

Derby+0.09on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

84%

Ipswich or Derby

78%

Draw or Derby

39%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

36%

Derby wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

84%

Ipswich 2+ goals

55%

Ipswich 3+ goals

28%

Derby 1+ goals

56%

Derby 2+ goals

20%

Derby 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

79%

Derby (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.61 · 11 matches

Derby away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.72 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.98 + Derby defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.85

Derby attack 1.05 + Ipswich defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ipswich scores more

61%

level

22%

Derby scores more

16%

Ipswich at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Greaves

Ipswich · D

8.0

Match Events

33'

J. Greaves

35'

Callum Elder

40'

Kasey McAteer

50'

C. MorrisPenalty

54'

George Hirst

55'

Ebou Adams

67'

Lewis Travis

68'

S. Szmodics← C. Chaplin

68'

C. Akpom← G. Hirst

68'

J. Clarke← K. McAteer

70'

R. Brewster

75'

Bobby Clark

78'

J. Taylor← J. Cajuste

81'

D. Ozoh← L. Travis

81'

K. Jackson← R. Brewster

85'

Dion Sanderson

86'

I. Azon← L. Davis

90+15'

90+14'

90+6'

90+1'

90+5'

R. Nyambe← M. Johnston

90'

J. ClarkePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichDerby

Overview

69%Possession31%

18Total Shots10

2.91Expected Goals (xG)1.48

6Corners3

14Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots10

5On Target2

8Off Target2

5Blocked6

13Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

477Total Passes214

391Accurate Passes127

82%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.40Goals Prevented0.40

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards7

Ipswich 2 – 2 Derby

Ipswich and Derby drew 2-2 in Championship on August 30, 2025.

Goals: J. Greaves (33'), C. Morris (50' pen), R. Brewster (70'), J. Clarke (90' pen).

Ipswich controlled possession (69%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich.

Ipswich vs Derby — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ipswich 2 – 2 Derby