Derby 0–2 Ipswich: Result & Stats | League One

Derby

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ipswich

G. Hirst 76'

C. Chaplin 17'

4/1/2023

League One · Round 39Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Derby41%

×Draw25%

Ipswich33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.30

Derby

1.48

Ipswich

1.30

Derby creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

1.60

1.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Derby

1.57

Ipswich

1.60

allows per match

Derby

1.00

Ipswich

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Derby or draw

67%

Derby or Ipswich

75%

Draw or Ipswich

59%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

20%

Ipswich wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

77%

Derby 2+ goals

43%

Derby 3+ goals

19%

Ipswich 1+ goals

73%

Ipswich 2+ goals

37%

Ipswich 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

55%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.57 + Ipswich defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ipswich attack 1.60 + Derby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Derby scores more

41%

level

25%

Ipswich scores more

33%

Derby at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Mendez-Laing

Derby · M

7.5

Match Events

3'

17'

23'

41'

51'

60'

69'

T. Barkhuizen← J. Rooney

70'

C. Hourihane← M. Bird

70'

L. Dobbin← J. Collins

70'

M. Harness← N. Broadhead

71'

J. Donacien← H. Clarke

76'

78'

78'

79'

85'

88'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyIpswich

Overview

56%Possession44%

6Total Shots13

4Corners4

8Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots13

2On Target6

4Off Target4

0Blocked3

5Inside Box6

1Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

493Total Passes404

387Accurate Passes296

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls8

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

League One: Derby 0–2 Ipswich

Ipswich beat Derby 2-0 in League One on April 1, 2023.

Goals: C. Chaplin (17'), G. Hirst (76').

Derby controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.

Derby vs Ipswich — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Derby 0–2 Ipswich