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Ipswich vs Derby — League One 2025

Ipswich
Ipswich
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Derby
Derby
W. Burns 67'
10/21/2022League OneLeague One · Round 16Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ipswich62%
×Draw22%
Derby15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich
1.83
Derby
0.78

Ipswich creates 135% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ipswich
2.56
Derby
1.11

allows per match

Ipswich
0.44
Derby
1.11

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw
85%
Ipswich or Derby
78%
Draw or Derby
38%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+
37%
Derby wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals
84%
Ipswich 2+ goals
54%
Ipswich 3+ goals
28%
Derby 1+ goals
54%
Derby 2+ goals
18%
Derby 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)
80%
Derby (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Derby away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 2.56 + Derby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.83

Derby attack 1.11 + Ipswich defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ipswich scores more
62%
level
22%
Derby scores more
15%

Ipswich at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
W. BurnsIpswichIpswich · M
7.9

Match Events

10'
Sam Morsy
23'
James Chester
51'
Korey Smith
60'
D. McGoldrick← L. Dobbin
65'
C. Hourihane← W. Osula
67'
W. Burns
73'
F. Ladapo← T. John-Jules
76'
D. Ball← L. Evans
80'
C. Forsyth← T. Barkhuizen
80'
L. Thompson← K. Smith
90+7'
Luke Woolfenden
90+7'
R. Keogh← J. Donacien

Possession

53%Ipswich

Shots

16Ipswich

Pass accuracy

51%Ipswich

Statistics

IpswichDerby
Overview
53%Possession47%
16Total Shots5
11Corners3
13Fouls15
Shots
16Total Shots5
3On Target0
7Off Target2
6Blocked3
12Inside Box3
4Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
416Total Passes371
290Accurate Passes244
70%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Ipswich vs Derby

Ipswich beat Derby 1-0 in League One on October 21, 2022.

Goals: W. Burns (67').

Ipswich controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich, Suffolk.