Ipswich 4–0 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Burton Albion

C. Chaplin 69', 31'

F. Ladapo 42'

N. Broadhead 38'

3/4/2023

League One · Round 35Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich54%

×Draw25%

Burton Albion22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.95

Ipswich

1.65

Burton Albion

0.95

Ipswich creates 74% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 176 away

1.70

creates per match

1.06

0.83

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Burton Albion

1.06

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Burton Albion

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

78%

Ipswich or Burton Albion

75%

Draw or Burton Albion

46%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

29%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

81%

Ipswich 2+ goals

49%

Ipswich 3+ goals

23%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

61%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

25%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

71%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ipswich scores more

54%

level

25%

Burton Albion scores more

22%

Ipswich at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Chaplin

Ipswich · M

9.2

Match Events

15'

18'

19'

31'

38'

N. Broadhead↳ W. Burns

42'

Thomas Hamer

42'

F. Ladapo↳ C. Chaplin

46'

C. Kirk← M. Helm

46'

J. Walker← J. Smith

61'

B. Kamwa← J. Brayford

65'

Conor Shaughnessy

69'

C. Chaplin↳ L. Davis

70'

M. Harness← C. Chaplin

70'

G. Hirst← F. Ladapo

70'

K. Edwards← N. Broadhead

73'

M. Carayol← D. Taylor

77'

C. Humphreys← M. Luongo

77'

Z. Ashworth← J. Moon

83'

J. Donacien← L. Davis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichBurton

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots14

3Corners8

5Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots14

7On Target2

6Off Target6

4Blocked6

11Inside Box10

6Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

414Total Passes302

290Accurate Passes185

70%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

5Offsides0