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Burton Albion vs Ipswich — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ipswich
Ipswich
L. Akins 86' (pen)
J. Powell 19'
J. Pigott 22'
8/14/2021League OneLeague One · Round 2Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Burton Albion33%
×Draw27%
Ipswich40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.15
Ipswich
1.29

Ipswich creates 12% more chances

Season form · 177 home / 84 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.29
Ipswich
1.27

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.30
Ipswich
1.01

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
60%
Burton Albion or Ipswich
73%
Draw or Ipswich
67%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
13%
Ipswich wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
68%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
32%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
11%
Ipswich 1+ goals
72%
Ipswich 2+ goals
37%
Ipswich 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
45%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ipswich attack 1.27 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burton Albion scores more
33%
level
27%
Ipswich scores more
40%

Ipswich at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. AkinsBurton AlbionBurton Albion · M
8.2

Match Events

15'
Terry Taylor
19'
J. Powell↳ L. Akins
22'
J. Pigott↳ L. Evans
40'
M. Mancienne← T. Taylor
57'
Thomas O'Connor
66'
M. Bonne← A. Dobra
66'
K. Edwards← L. Barry
86'
L. AkinsPenalty
89'
M. Bostwick← J. Smith
90+2'
Michael Mancienne

Possession

36%Burton

Shots

11Burton

Pass accuracy

44%Burton

Statistics

BurtonIpswich
Overview
36%Possession64%
11Total Shots15
3Corners7
17Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots15
2On Target6
5Off Target2
4Blocked7
8Inside Box10
3Outside Box5
Passing
36%Possession64%
225Total Passes402
128Accurate Passes295
57%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
17Fouls8
3Yellow Cards0
0Offsides3

League One: Burton Albion 2–1 Ipswich

Burton Albion beat Ipswich 2-1 in League One on August 14, 2021.

Goals: J. Powell (19'), J. Pigott (22'), L. Akins (86' pen).

Ipswich controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Pirelli Stadium in Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire.