Burton Albion 0–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ipswich

M. Harness 60'

8/16/2022

League One · Round 4Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Burton Albion33%

×Draw27%

Ipswich40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.29

Burton Albion

1.15

Ipswich

1.29

Ipswich creates 12% more chances

Season form · 177 home / 84 away

1.29

creates per match

1.27

1.30

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.29

Ipswich

1.27

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.30

Ipswich

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

60%

Burton Albion or Ipswich

73%

Draw or Ipswich

67%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

13%

Ipswich wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

68%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

32%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

11%

Ipswich 1+ goals

72%

Ipswich 2+ goals

37%

Ipswich 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

45%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ipswich attack 1.27 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burton Albion scores more

33%

level

27%

Ipswich scores more

40%

Ipswich at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Walton

Ipswich · G

8.0

Match Events

5'

J. Powell← C. Shaughnessy

45'

George Edmundson

60'

M. Harness↳ G. Leigh

72'

T. John-Jules← M. Harness

72'

K. Vincent-Young← F. Ladapo

72'

C. Chaplin← S. Aluko

82'

V. Adeboyejo← A. Oshilaja

88'

L. Moult← J. Smith

90+1'

Gassan Ahadme

90+6'

Greg Leigh

90+6'

C. Burgess← K. Jackson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonIpswich

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots16

5Corners12

13Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots16

4On Target3

8Off Target3

2Blocked10

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

298Total Passes431

179Accurate Passes297

60%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2