Ipswich 2–1 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Burton Albion

E. Huws 80'

K. Bennetts 4'

J. Powell 21'

12/15/2020

League One · Round 18Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich54%

×Draw25%

Burton Albion22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.95

Ipswich

1.65

Burton Albion

0.95

Ipswich creates 74% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 176 away

1.70

creates per match

1.06

0.83

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Burton Albion

1.06

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Burton Albion

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

78%

Ipswich or Burton Albion

75%

Draw or Burton Albion

46%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

29%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

81%

Ipswich 2+ goals

49%

Ipswich 3+ goals

23%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

61%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

25%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

71%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ipswich scores more

54%

level

25%

Burton Albion scores more

22%

Ipswich at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

E. Huws

Ipswich · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

K. Bennetts↳ K. Jackson

21'

J. Powell↳ C. Daniel

46'

A. Dobra← K. Bennetts

51'

53'

58'

80'

87'

88'

A. Drinan← K. Jackson

90'

Armando Dobra

90'

John Brayford

90'

Ryan Edwards

90'

S. Lawless← C. Vernam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichBurton

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots5

3Corners1

12Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots5

9On Target1

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

13Inside Box2

5Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

479Total Passes303

341Accurate Passes168

71%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls8

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1