Ipswich 2–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

J. Clarke 55', 8'

1/20/2026

Championship · Round 28Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Ipswich54%

×Draw25%

Bristol City21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.92

Ipswich

1.62

Bristol City

0.92

Ipswich creates 76% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 58 away

1.89

creates per match

1.05

0.78

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Ipswich

1.89

Bristol City

1.05

allows per match

Ipswich

0.78

Bristol City

1.35

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.14scores more

Bristol City-0.08on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

79%

Ipswich or Bristol City

75%

Draw or Bristol City

46%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

29%

Bristol City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

80%

Ipswich 2+ goals

48%

Ipswich 3+ goals

22%

Bristol City 1+ goals

60%

Bristol City 2+ goals

23%

Bristol City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

72%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.78 · 39 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.89 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.62

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Ipswich defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ipswich scores more

54%

level

25%

Bristol City scores more

21%

Ipswich at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47

J. Clarke

Ipswich · M

9.3

Match Events

8'

J. Clarke↳ J. Cajuste

27'

S. Morsy← Z. Vyner

40'

Neto Borges

55'

J. Clarke↳ I. Azon

59'

C. Pring← Neto Borges

59'

G. Earthy← M. Sykes

59'

S. Armstrong← E. Riis

60'

Sam Morsy

62'

Robert Dickie

63'

J. Taylor← J. Cajuste

63'

K. McAteer← W. Burns

71'

Darnell Furlong

72'

G. Hirst← I. Azon

73'

S. Szmodics← M. Nunez

74'

George Tanner

80'

H. Roberts← R. Atkinson

84'

A. Young← J. Clarke

87'

Adam Randell

89'

Sinclair Armstrong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichBristol

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots8

1.08Expected Goals (xG)0.71

9Corners2

19Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target3

3Off Target4

5Blocked1

8Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

472Total Passes460

384Accurate Passes376

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0.26Goals Prevented0.26

Discipline

19Fouls14

1Yellow Cards6

2Offsides2

Championship: Ipswich 2–0 Bristol City

Ipswich beat Bristol City 2-0 in Championship on January 20, 2026.

Goals: J. Clarke (8', 55').

Ipswich controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Portman Road in Ipswich.

Ipswich vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Ipswich 2–0 Bristol City