Bristol City 1–1 Ipswich: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ipswich

A. Webster 32'

L. Kelly 68' (OG)

3/12/2019

Championship · Round 37Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Bristol City24%

×Draw25%

Ipswich51%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.58

Bristol City

1.00

Ipswich

1.58

Ipswich creates 58% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 8 away

1.04

creates per match

1.82

1.35

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Bristol City

1.04

Ipswich

1.82

allows per match

Bristol City

1.35

Ipswich

0.97

-0.08on par

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol City-0.08on par

Ipswich-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

49%

Bristol City or Ipswich

75%

Draw or Ipswich

76%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

9%

Ipswich wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

63%

Bristol City 2+ goals

26%

Bristol City 3+ goals

8%

Ipswich 1+ goals

79%

Ipswich 2+ goals

47%

Ipswich 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

32%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Ipswich defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ipswich attack 1.82 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bristol City scores more

24%

level

25%

Ipswich scores more

51%

Ipswich at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Webster

Bristol City · D

8.0

Match Events

30'

Andre Dozzell

32'

A. Webster

68'

L. KellyOwn goal

73'

C. O'Dowda← A. Weimann

73'

K. Palmer← J. Paterson

75'

C. Skuse← J. Nolan

75'

I. El Mizouni← A. Judge

76'

Gwion Edwards

83'

Idris El Mizouni

83'

M. Taylor← N. Eliasson

86'

T. Bishop← A. Dozzell

90'

Jack Hunt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolIpswich

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots7

5Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots7

1On Target4

7Off Target3

4Blocked0

10Inside Box2

2Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

359Total Passes360

239Accurate Passes235

67%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides4