Ipswich 3–2 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Ipswich

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol City

L. Davis 89'

C. Chaplin 80'

Ali Al Hamadi 62'

T. Conway 77'

A. Mehmeti 54'

3/5/2024

Championship · Round 36Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Ipswich57%

×Draw24%

Bristol City19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.85

Ipswich

1.67

Bristol City

0.85

Ipswich creates 96% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.94

creates per match

1.04

0.66

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Ipswich

1.94

Bristol City

1.04

allows per match

Ipswich

0.66

Bristol City

1.41

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.29scores more

Bristol City-0.04on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

81%

Ipswich or Bristol City

76%

Draw or Bristol City

43%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

31%

Bristol City wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

81%

Ipswich 2+ goals

50%

Ipswich 3+ goals

23%

Bristol City 1+ goals

57%

Bristol City 2+ goals

21%

Bristol City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

75%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.66 · 13 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.41 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.94 + Bristol City defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Ipswich defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ipswich scores more

57%

level

24%

Bristol City scores more

19%

Ipswich at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Davis

Ipswich · D

9.2

Match Events

54'

A. Mehmeti↳ C. Pring

60'

J. Taylor← M. Luongo

61'

W. Burns← O. Hutchinson

61'

Ali Al Hamadi← K. Moore

61'

J. Sarmiento← M. Harness

62'

M. Sykes← H. Cornick

62'

Ali Al Hamadi↳ L. Davis

75'

H. Clarke← A. Tuanzebe

76'

77'

79'

80'

85'

89'

L. Davis↳ J. Sarmiento

90+1'

Ali Al-Hamadi

90+3'

Cameron Pring

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichBristol

Overview

57%Possession43%

14Total Shots11

2.53Expected Goals (xG)0.92

4Corners5

6Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots11

8On Target4

4Off Target4

2Blocked3

13Inside Box9

1Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

485Total Passes358

375Accurate Passes256

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0