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Ipatinga vs Democrata GV — Mineiro - 1 2020

Ipatinga
Ipatinga
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Democrata GV
Democrata GV
3/12/2024Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · Relegation Round - 1Estádio João Lamego Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ipatinga39%
×Draw27%
Democrata GV34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipatinga
1.32
Democrata GV
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 26 away

creates per match

Ipatinga
1.33
Democrata GV
0.85

allows per match

Ipatinga
1.56
Democrata GV
1.31

finishing

Ipatinga+0.00on par
Democrata GV+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipatinga ↓

Democrata GV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ipatinga or draw
66%
Ipatinga or Democrata GV
73%
Draw or Democrata GV
61%

Winning margin

Ipatinga wins by 2+
18%
Democrata GV wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ipatinga 1+ goals
73%
Ipatinga 2+ goals
38%
Ipatinga 3+ goals
15%
Democrata GV 1+ goals
70%
Democrata GV 2+ goals
34%
Democrata GV 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ipatinga (draw refunded)
54%
Democrata GV (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipatinga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Democrata GV away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipatinga attack 1.33 + Democrata GV defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Democrata GV attack 0.85 + Ipatinga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ipatinga scores more
39%
level
27%
Democrata GV scores more
34%

Ipatinga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ipatinga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ipatinga vs Democrata GV

Ipatinga beat Democrata GV 4-3 in Mineiro - 1 on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio João Lamego Neto in Ipatinga, Minas Gerais.