Ipatinga 1–1 Democrata GV: Result & Stats

Ipatinga

FT

1 – 1

Democrata GV

7/31/2021

Mineiro - 2 · Round 6Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ipatinga38%

×Draw31%

Democrata GV31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpatingaExpected goals in this matchDemocrata GV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.91

Ipatinga

1.04

Democrata GV

0.91

Ipatinga creates 14% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 14 away

1.07

creates per match

0.57

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ipatinga

1.07

Democrata GV

0.57

allows per match

Ipatinga

1.25

Democrata GV

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipatinga+0.00on par

Democrata GV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipatinga ↓

Democrata GV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ipatinga or draw

69%

Ipatinga or Democrata GV

69%

Draw or Democrata GV

62%

Winning margin

Ipatinga wins by 2+

15%

Democrata GV wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ipatinga 1+ goals

65%

Ipatinga 2+ goals

28%

Ipatinga 3+ goals

9%

Democrata GV 1+ goals

60%

Democrata GV 2+ goals

23%

Democrata GV 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ipatinga (draw refunded)

55%

Democrata GV (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipatinga at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

Democrata GV away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipatinga attack 1.07 + Democrata GV defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Democrata GV attack 0.57 + Ipatinga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ipatinga scores more

38%

level

31%

Democrata GV scores more

31%

Ipatinga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ipatinga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff