Democrata GV 4–1 Ipatinga: Result & Stats

Democrata GV

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ipatinga

4/1/2024

Mineiro - 1 · Relegation Round - 6Estádio José Mammoud Abbas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Democrata GV43%

×Draw25%

Ipatinga32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Democrata GVExpected goals in this matchIpatinga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.29

Democrata GV

1.55

Ipatinga

1.29

Democrata GV creates 20% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

1.40

1.19

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Democrata GV

1.00

Ipatinga

1.40

allows per match

Democrata GV

1.19

Ipatinga

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Democrata GV+0.00on par

Ipatinga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata GV ↓

Ipatinga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Democrata GV or draw

68%

Democrata GV or Ipatinga

75%

Draw or Ipatinga

57%

Winning margin

Democrata GV wins by 2+

22%

Ipatinga wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Democrata GV 1+ goals

79%

Democrata GV 2+ goals

46%

Democrata GV 3+ goals

20%

Ipatinga 1+ goals

72%

Ipatinga 2+ goals

37%

Ipatinga 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Democrata GV (draw refunded)

58%

Ipatinga (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata GV at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Ipatinga away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata GV attack 1.00 + Ipatinga defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Ipatinga attack 1.40 + Democrata GV defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Democrata GV scores more

43%

level

25%

Ipatinga scores more

32%

Democrata GV at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Democrata GV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff