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Inverness CT vs Cowdenbeath — FA Cup 2019

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
11/25/2023FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundTulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Inverness CT59%
×Draw23%
Cowdenbeath18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inverness CT
1.77
Cowdenbeath
0.86

Inverness CT creates 106% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Inverness CT
1.75
Cowdenbeath
0.60

allows per match

Inverness CT
1.13
Cowdenbeath
1.80

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par
Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Cowdenbeath →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw
82%
Inverness CT or Cowdenbeath
77%
Draw or Cowdenbeath
41%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+
33%
Cowdenbeath wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals
83%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
53%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
26%
Cowdenbeath 1+ goals
58%
Cowdenbeath 2+ goals
21%
Cowdenbeath 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)
77%
Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Cowdenbeath away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 1.75 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cowdenbeath attack 0.60 + Inverness CT defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Inverness CT scores more
59%
level
23%
Cowdenbeath scores more
18%

Inverness CT at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inverness CT vs Cowdenbeath

Inverness CT beat Cowdenbeath 2-0 in FA Cup on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Tulloch Caledonian Stadium in Inverness.