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Cowdenbeath vs Inverness CT — League Cup 2018

Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
7/17/2018League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 3Central Park (Cowdenbeath)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cowdenbeath41%
×Draw25%
Inverness CT34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cowdenbeath
1.53
Inverness CT
1.38

Cowdenbeath creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cowdenbeath
0.73
Inverness CT
1.13

allows per match

Cowdenbeath
1.64
Inverness CT
2.33

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par
Inverness CT+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Inverness CT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw
66%
Cowdenbeath or Inverness CT
75%
Draw or Inverness CT
59%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+
20%
Inverness CT wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals
78%
Cowdenbeath 2+ goals
45%
Cowdenbeath 3+ goals
20%
Inverness CT 1+ goals
75%
Inverness CT 2+ goals
40%
Inverness CT 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)
54%
Inverness CT (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Inverness CT away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 0.73 + Inverness CT defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Inverness CT attack 1.13 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more
41%
level
25%
Inverness CT scores more
34%

Cowdenbeath at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cowdenbeath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Cowdenbeath 2–5 Inverness CT

Inverness CT beat Cowdenbeath 5-2 in League Cup on July 17, 2018.

The match was played at Central Park (Cowdenbeath).