Inverness CT 0–0 Cowdenbeath: Result & Stats

Inverness CT

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cowdenbeath

10/13/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 4Tulloch Caledonian Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Inverness CT75%

×Draw17%

Cowdenbeath8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inverness CTExpected goals in this matchCowdenbeath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.57

Inverness CT

2.23

Cowdenbeath

0.57

Inverness CT creates 291% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

2.25

creates per match

0.40

0.75

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Inverness CT

2.25

Cowdenbeath

0.40

allows per match

Inverness CT

0.75

Cowdenbeath

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inverness CT+0.00on par

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inverness CT ↓

Cowdenbeath →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Inverness CT or draw

92%

Inverness CT or Cowdenbeath

83%

Draw or Cowdenbeath

25%

Winning margin

Inverness CT wins by 2+

51%

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Inverness CT 1+ goals

89%

Inverness CT 2+ goals

65%

Inverness CT 3+ goals

38%

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

43%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

11%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Inverness CT (draw refunded)

90%

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inverness CT at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Cowdenbeath away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inverness CT attack 2.25 + Cowdenbeath defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.23

Cowdenbeath attack 0.40 + Inverness CT defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Inverness CT scores more

75%

level

17%

Cowdenbeath scores more

8%

Inverness CT at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Inverness CT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff