Internacional de Madrid 3–3 SS Reyes

Internacional de Madrid

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

SS Reyes

Aythami Perera 90+3', 55'

Rubén Ramos 75'

Iván Bueno 52'

A. Emaná 6' (pen)

Raúl Hernández 5'

12/15/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid49%

×Draw25%

SS Reyes26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchSS Reyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.08

Internacional de Madrid

1.59

SS Reyes

1.08

Internacional de Madrid creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 53 away

1.82

creates per match

0.92

1.24

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

SS Reyes

0.92

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

SS Reyes

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

SS Reyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

74%

Internacional de Madrid or SS Reyes

75%

Draw or SS Reyes

51%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

25%

SS Reyes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

80%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

47%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

21%

SS Reyes 1+ goals

66%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

29%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

66%

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

SS Reyes away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.36 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + SS Reyes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.59

SS Reyes attack 0.92 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

49%

level

25%

SS Reyes scores more

26%

Internacional de Madrid at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Raúl Hernández

6'

A. EmanáPenalty

46'

Aythami Perera← Chevi

46'

M. Boselli← Gonzalo Llerena

46'

Iván Bueno← A. Emaná

52'

Iván Bueno

55'

Aythami Perera

63'

Marcos Gullón← Álvaro Queijeiro

70'

N. Arkine← Daniel Gallardo

75'

Rubén Ramos

90+2'

Alberto Rentero← Raúl Hernández

90+3'

Aythami Perera

Internacional

SS

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

46'▲Aythami Perera←▼Chevi

46'▲M. Boselli←▼Gonzalo Llerena

70'▲N. Arkine←▼Daniel Gallardo

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

PereraBoselliArkineNúñezArthurSimónValero

Manager: Josico

46'▲Iván Bueno←▼A. Emaná

63'▲Marcos Gullón←▼Álvaro Queijeiro

90+2'▲Alberto Rentero←▼Raúl Hernández

SS Reyes substitutes

BuenoGullónRenteroCortésRodríguezBuilTomás

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs SS Reyes

Internacional de Madrid and SS Reyes drew 3-3 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 15, 2019.

Goals: Raúl Hernández (5'), A. Emaná (6' pen), Iván Bueno (52'), Aythami Perera (55', 90+3'), Rubén Ramos (75').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte in Boadilla del Monte.

Internacional de Madrid vs SS Reyes — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs SS Reyes