Internacional de Madrid 1–2 Rayo Majadahonda

Internacional de Madrid

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Majadahonda

Rufo 66'

Borja Díaz 57'

Marc Caballé 48'

12/1/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Internacional de Madrid50%

×Draw25%

Rayo Majadahonda26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchRayo Majadahonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.10

Internacional de Madrid

1.64

Rayo Majadahonda

1.10

Internacional de Madrid creates 49% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 72 away

1.82

creates per match

0.96

1.24

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Rayo Majadahonda

0.96

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Rayo Majadahonda

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

74%

Internacional de Madrid or Rayo Majadahonda

75%

Draw or Rayo Majadahonda

50%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

26%

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

81%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

49%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

23%

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

67%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

30%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

66%

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

50%

level

25%

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

26%

Internacional de Madrid at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Pere Martínez← Pablo

48'

Marc Caballé

57'

Borja Díaz

64'

N. Arkine← David Del Pozo

66'

Rufo

73'

Arthur← Chevi

78'

Aythami Perera← Rubén Ramos

78'

Carlitos← Sergio Moyita

87'

Iago Díaz← Marc Caballé

Internacional

Rayo

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

64'▲N. Arkine←▼David Del Pozo

73'▲Arthur←▼Chevi

78'▲Aythami Perera←▼Rubén Ramos

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

ArkineArthurPereraSimónPedroBoselliValero

Manager: Julián Calero

14'▲Pere Martínez←▼Pablo

78'▲Carlitos←▼Sergio Moyita

87'▲Iago Díaz←▼Marc Caballé

Rayo Majadahonda substitutes

MartínezCarlitosDíazRódenasMartínZárragaTamayo