Internacional de Madrid 2–0 CF Talavera

Internacional de Madrid

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CF Talavera

Sergio Arribas 89'

David Rabadán 44'

5/2/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Internacional de Madrid39%

×Draw28%

CF Talavera33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchCF Talavera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.08

Internacional de Madrid

1.21

CF Talavera

1.08

Internacional de Madrid creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.17

creates per match

1.33

0.83

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.17

CF Talavera

1.33

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

0.83

CF Talavera

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

CF Talavera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

CF Talavera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

67%

Internacional de Madrid or CF Talavera

72%

Draw or CF Talavera

61%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

17%

CF Talavera wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

70%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

34%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

12%

CF Talavera 1+ goals

66%

CF Talavera 2+ goals

29%

CF Talavera 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

54%

CF Talavera (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

CF Talavera away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.17 + CF Talavera defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

CF Talavera attack 1.33 + Internacional de Madrid defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

39%

level

28%

CF Talavera scores more

33%

Internacional de Madrid at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Josué Dorrio← Vicente Romero

44'

David Rabadán

63'

Chacopino← Mario Gómez

63'

Choco← Edmílson Santos

64'

David Barral← Adrià de Mesa

70'

Rubén Ramos← Adrián Mance

70'

Sergio Arribas← Víctor Villacañas

72'

David Añón← Héctor Gómez

84'

Junior← Reguera

89'

Sergio Arribas

90+4'

T. Bourdal

Internacional

CF

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Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

64'▲David Barral←▼Adrià de Mesa

70'▲Rubén Ramos←▼Adrián Mance

70'▲Sergio Arribas←▼Víctor Villacañas

84'▲Junior←▼Reguera

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

BarralRamosArribasJuniorJiménezMarcosValeroAguileraFranco

Manager: Víctor Cea

42'▲Josué Dorrio←▼Vicente Romero

63'▲Chacopino←▼Mario Gómez

63'▲Choco←▼Edmílson Santos

72'▲David Añón←▼Héctor Gómez

CF Talavera substitutes

DorrioChacopinoChocoAñónParraDomínguezMonroyRodrigoRuiz