CF Talavera 2–0 Internacional de Madrid

CF Talavera

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

T. Bourdal 90+2'

David Añón 44'

4/11/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

CF Talavera38%

×Draw28%

Internacional de Madrid34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF TalaveraExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.13

CF Talavera

1.21

Internacional de Madrid

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.42

creates per match

1.08

1.17

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

CF Talavera

1.42

Internacional de Madrid

1.08

allows per match

CF Talavera

1.17

Internacional de Madrid

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Talavera+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Talavera ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

CF Talavera or draw

66%

CF Talavera or Internacional de Madrid

72%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

62%

Winning margin

CF Talavera wins by 2+

16%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

CF Talavera 1+ goals

70%

CF Talavera 2+ goals

34%

CF Talavera 3+ goals

12%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

68%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

31%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CF Talavera (draw refunded)

53%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Talavera at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Talavera attack 1.42 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.08 + CF Talavera defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CF Talavera scores more

38%

level

28%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

34%

CF Talavera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CF Talavera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

David Añón

54'

Adrià de Mesa← David Barral

54'

Gonzalo Poley← Reguera

57'

Edmílson Santos← Josué Dorrio

57'

Victor Ruiz← Pablo Monroy

67'

Chicha Aguilera← David Rabadán

67'

Franco← Sergio Arribas

73'

Marcos← Adrián Mance

82'

Mario Gómez← David Añón

85'

Chacopino← Rodrigo

90+2'

T. Bourdal

CF

Internacional

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⚽

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Manager: Víctor Cea

57'▲Edmílson Santos←▼Josué Dorrio

57'▲Victor Ruiz←▼Pablo Monroy

82'▲Mario Gómez←▼David Añón

85'▲Chacopino←▼Rodrigo

CF Talavera substitutes

SantosRuizGómezChacopinoParraGómezDomínguezCarvalhoRozas

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

54'▲Adrià de Mesa←▼David Barral

54'▲Gonzalo Poley←▼Reguera

67'▲Chicha Aguilera←▼David Rabadán

67'▲Franco←▼Sergio Arribas

73'▲Marcos←▼Adrián Mance

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

MesaPoleyAguileraFrancoMarcosJiménezValeroJunior