CF Talavera 1–1 Internacional de Madrid

CF Talavera

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Víctor Ruiz 85'

Álvaro Martín 69'

12/4/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

CF Talavera42%

×Draw29%

Internacional de Madrid29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF TalaveraExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.95

CF Talavera

1.22

Internacional de Madrid

0.95

CF Talavera creates 28% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 33 away

1.02

creates per match

0.76

1.15

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

CF Talavera

1.02

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

CF Talavera

1.15

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Talavera+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Talavera ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CF Talavera or draw

71%

CF Talavera or Internacional de Madrid

71%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

58%

Winning margin

CF Talavera wins by 2+

19%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CF Talavera 1+ goals

70%

CF Talavera 2+ goals

34%

CF Talavera 3+ goals

12%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

61%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

25%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CF Talavera (draw refunded)

60%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Talavera at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.15 · 55 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Talavera attack 1.02 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.22

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + CF Talavera defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CF Talavera scores more

42%

level

29%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

29%

CF Talavera at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CF Talavera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

Toño Calvo← Dani Pichín

69'

Álvaro Martín

72'

Edmílson Santos← D. Escalante

72'

Rodrigo Farofa← Jordi Ortega

73'

Kenneth Soler← Adrián Mance

78'

Álvaro Montero← Pitu

85'

Víctor Ruiz

87'

Álex Zambrano← Rubén Ramos

88'

Borja Díaz← T. Bourdal

88'

Juan Góngora← Víctor Ruiz

CF

Internacional

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▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

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Manager: Víctor Cea

63'▲Toño Calvo←▼Dani Pichín

72'▲Edmílson Santos←▼D. Escalante

72'▲Rodrigo Farofa←▼Jordi Ortega

88'▲Borja Díaz←▼T. Bourdal

88'▲Juan Góngora←▼Víctor Ruiz

CF Talavera substitutes

CalvoSantosFarofaDíazGóngoraJordiFernándezRusanovTotedaMonroyMiñoAdighibe

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

73'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Adrián Mance

78'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Pitu

87'▲Álex Zambrano←▼Rubén Ramos

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

SolerMonteroZambranoGilMasogoHerreroExpósitoSiuBarralKolderiuGonzálezArribas