Internacional de Madrid 3–1 Atlético Madrid II

Internacional de Madrid

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Madrid II

Adrián Mance 50'

Adrià de Mesa 42'

David Rabadán 16'

Borja Garcés 62'

10/25/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Internacional de Madrid46%

×Draw28%

Atlético Madrid II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchAtlético Madrid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.92

Internacional de Madrid

1.31

Atlético Madrid II

0.92

Internacional de Madrid creates 42% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.17

creates per match

1.00

0.83

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.17

Atlético Madrid II

1.00

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

0.83

Atlético Madrid II

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Atlético Madrid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

74%

Internacional de Madrid or Atlético Madrid II

72%

Draw or Atlético Madrid II

54%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

21%

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

73%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

38%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

14%

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

60%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

23%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

63%

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.17 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.00 + Internacional de Madrid defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

46%

level

28%

Atlético Madrid II scores more

26%

Internacional de Madrid at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

David Rabadán

42'

Adrià de Mesa

50'

Adrián Mance

58'

Borja Garcés← Josep Calavera

58'

Luis Forcén← F. Gutiérrez

62'

Borja Garcés

64'

Ismael Gutiérrez← Mario Soriano

74'

Alvaro Garcia

74'

Alvaro Garcia

75'

Reguera← Fran Cortés

77'

Franco← Gonzalo Poley

85'

Marc Ureña← J. Sanabria

86'

Víctor Villacañas← Adrián Mance

Internacional

Atlético

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

75'▲Reguera←▼Fran Cortés

77'▲Franco←▼Gonzalo Poley

86'▲Víctor Villacañas←▼Adrián Mance

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

RegueraFrancoVillacañasRashitiGarranchoMarcosArribasLechuga

Manager: Nacho Fernández

58'▲Borja Garcés←▼Josep Calavera

58'▲Luis Forcén←▼F. Gutiérrez

64'▲Ismael Gutiérrez←▼Mario Soriano

85'▲Marc Ureña←▼J. Sanabria

Atlético Madrid II substitutes

GarcésForcénGutiérrezUreñaDamarValensRojasDortaMedrano

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Atlético Madrid II

Internacional de Madrid beat Atlético Madrid II 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 25, 2020.

Goals: David Rabadán (16'), Adrià de Mesa (42'), Adrián Mance (50'), Borja Garcés (62').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Atlético Madrid II