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Internacional de Madrid vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Internacional de Madrid
Internacional de Madrid
CANC
00:00
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
4/12/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Internacional de Madrid41%
×Draw25%
Atlético Madrid II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Madrid
1.52
Atlético Madrid II
1.35

Internacional de Madrid creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid
1.82
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid
1.24
Atlético Madrid II
1.23

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw
66%
Internacional de Madrid or Atlético Madrid II
75%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
59%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+
20%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals
78%
Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals
45%
Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals
20%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
39%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)
55%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.46 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more
41%
level
25%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
34%

Internacional de Madrid at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Internacional de Madrid face Atlético Madrid II (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Internacional de Madrid hosting Atlético Madrid II. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Internacional de Madrid host Atlético Madrid II at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.