Atlético Madrid II 2–0 Internacional de Madrid

Atlético Madrid II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Germán Valera 89'

Óscar Clemente 71'

11/24/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Atlético Madrid II63%

×Draw22%

Internacional de Madrid15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Madrid IIExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.74

Atlético Madrid II

1.81

Internacional de Madrid

0.74

Atlético Madrid II creates 145% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

2.20

creates per match

0.76

0.73

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II

2.20

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II

0.73

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw

85%

Atlético Madrid II or Internacional de Madrid

78%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

37%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+

37%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals

84%

Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals

54%

Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals

27%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

52%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

17%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)

81%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 2.20 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.81

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more

63%

level

22%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

15%

Atlético Madrid II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

Sergio Camello← Alberto Salido

65'

Junior← N. Arkine

68'

Germán Valera← Rodrigo Riquelme

71'

Óscar Clemente

75'

Aythami Perera← Diego Simón

81'

Jota← Álvaro García

81'

Arthur← David Del Pozo

89'

Germán Valera

Atlético

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Nacho Fernández

62'▲Sergio Camello←▼Alberto Salido

68'▲Germán Valera←▼Rodrigo Riquelme

81'▲Jota←▼Álvaro García

Atlético Madrid II substitutes

CamelloValeraJotaFerrerasMuñozChristianTropi

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

65'▲Junior←▼N. Arkine

75'▲Aythami Perera←▼Diego Simón

81'▲Arthur←▼David Del Pozo

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

JuniorPereraArthurNúñezHerreroBoselliValero

Match Recap: Atlético Madrid II vs Internacional de Madrid

Atlético Madrid II beat Internacional de Madrid 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 24, 2019.

Goals: Óscar Clemente (71'), Germán Valera (89').

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.

Atlético Madrid II vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Madrid II vs Internacional de Madrid