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Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2024

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
3/9/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 8Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Internacional de Bogota39%
×Draw27%
Independiente Medellin33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.27
Independiente Medellin
1.15

Internacional de Bogota creates 10% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 55 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.22
Independiente Medellin
1.24

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.05
Independiente Medellin
1.33

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
67%
Internacional de Bogota or Independiente Medellin
73%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
61%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
17%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
72%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
36%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
14%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
68%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
32%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
54%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 58 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.22 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Independiente Medellin attack 1.24 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
39%
level
27%
Independiente Medellin scores more
33%

Internacional de Bogota at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
S. OrozcoInternacional de BogotaInternacional de Bogota · M
7.3

Match Events

3'
D. Copete
12'
F. Acosta← D. Copete
13'
L. SandovalGoal Disallowed - offside
33'
D. Polanco
45+6'
A. Del Valle
46'
H. E. Martinez Yepez← L. Escorcia
57'
A. Correa
59'
Marcus Vinicius← D. Moreno
59'
B. Leon← F. Fydriszewski
61'
F. Chaverra
62'
F. Chaverra← B. D. Castro Espinosa
62'
S. Tamara← S. Mayo
74'
Y. Abonia
75'
A. Serna← J. Alvarado
88'
S. Gomez← A. Del Valle

Possession

31%Internacional

Shots

10Internacional

Pass accuracy

45%Internacional

Statistics

InternacionalIndependiente
Overview
31%Possession69%
10Total Shots10
2Corners3
16Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots10
2On Target1
8Off Target7
0Blocked2
2Inside Box5
8Outside Box5
Passing
31%Possession69%
217Total Passes493
148Accurate Passes407
68%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls11
5Yellow Cards1
2Offsides5

Primera A: Internacional de Bogota 0–0 Independiente Medellin

Internacional de Bogota and Independiente Medellin drew 0-0 in Primera A on March 9, 2025.

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (69%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.