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Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2025

Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
É. Ricardo 45+3' (pen)
B. León 41'
L. Chaverra 26' (pen)
3/23/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 13Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Internacional de Bogota38%
×Draw28%
Independiente Medellin34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Internacional de Bogota
1.23
Independiente Medellin
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 39 away

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.28
Independiente Medellin
1.26

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota
1.06
Independiente Medellin
1.18

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw
66%
Internacional de Bogota or Independiente Medellin
72%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
62%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
16%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
71%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
35%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
13%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
69%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
32%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
52%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.28 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Independiente Medellin attack 1.26 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more
38%
level
28%
Independiente Medellin scores more
34%

Internacional de Bogota at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
E. ChauxIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · G
7.6

Match Events

26'
L. ChaverraPenalty
30'
J. Fory
41'
B. León↳ J. Fory
45+3'
É. RicardoPenalty
46'
J. Lloreda← D. Camacho
46'
Kevin David Salazar← J. Ceballos
52'
D. Polanco
53'
F. Acosta
54'
D. Londoño← M. Monsalve
57'
J. Mina← D. Polanco
59'
J. OrtizGoal Disallowed - offside
64'
M. García← B. León
64'
B. Perlaza← D. Moreno
70'
Kevin Andrés Salazar← É. Ricardo
79'
F. Torijano← J. Alvarado
79'
L. Orejuela← L. Chaverra
89'
E. Chaux
90+3'
K. A. Salazar Sandoval
90+4'
D. Castillo← F. Acosta

Possession

58%Internacional

Shots

17Internacional

Pass accuracy

51%Internacional

Statistics

InternacionalIndependiente
Overview
58%Possession42%
17Total Shots10
11Corners1
12Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots10
7On Target5
5Off Target3
5Blocked2
5Inside Box6
12Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
393Total Passes299
308Accurate Passes224
78%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
12Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Internacional de Bogota 2-1 in Primera A on March 23, 2024.

Goals: L. Chaverra (26' pen), B. León (41'), É. Ricardo (45+3' pen).

Internacional de Bogota controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo in Bogotá, D.C..