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Independiente Medellin vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2025

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
L. Chaverra 79' (pen)
D. Moncada 42', 6'
2/7/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 5Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Independiente Medellin58%
×Draw24%
Internacional de Bogota18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.71
Internacional de Bogota
0.85

Independiente Medellin creates 101% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 51 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.55
Internacional de Bogota
0.82

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.88
Internacional de Bogota
1.86

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
82%
Independiente Medellin or Internacional de Bogota
76%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
42%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
32%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
82%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
51%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
24%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
57%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
21%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
76%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 40 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.55 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.82 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
58%
level
24%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
18%

Independiente Medellin at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
D. MoncadaInternacional de BogotaInternacional de Bogota · M
8.5

Match Events

6'
D. Moncada↳ L. Vasquez
16'
L. Vasquez
33'
J. Valencia
42'
D. Moncada
45+2'
D. Quinones
46'
E. Larrosa← L. Berrio
56'
F. Chaverra
57'
R. Manjarres← D. Moncada
62'
M. Rodas
68'
A. Serna← H. Loboa
68'
G. Mancilla← E. Mena Perea
68'
D. Moreno← F. Chaverra
72'
J. Caballero← K. Parra Atehortua
79'
L. ChaverraPenalty
82'
M. Angel Amaya Pena← F. Bone
85'
A. Davila← D. Moreno
90+3'
J. Castro

Possession

64%Independiente

Shots

19Independiente

Pass accuracy

53%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteInternacional
Overview
64%Possession36%
19Total Shots7
9Corners3
12Fouls25
Shots
19Total Shots7
5On Target3
10Off Target2
4Blocked2
9Inside Box6
10Outside Box1
Passing
64%Possession36%
420Total Passes242
348Accurate Passes180
83%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls25
1Yellow Cards5
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Internacional de Bogota

Internacional de Bogota beat Independiente Medellin 2-1 in Primera A on February 7, 2026.

Goals: D. Moncada (6', 42'), L. Chaverra (79' pen).

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.