Internacional de Bogota 1–0 Independiente Medellin

Internacional de Bogota

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Medellin

10/5/2020

Primera A · Round 11Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 169+ matches

Internacional de Bogota42%

×Draw28%

Independiente Medellin30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.03

Internacional de Bogota

1.29

Independiente Medellin

1.03

Internacional de Bogota creates 25% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 185 away

1.22

creates per match

1.16

0.90

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.22

Independiente Medellin

1.16

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

0.90

Independiente Medellin

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

70%

Internacional de Bogota or Independiente Medellin

72%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

58%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

19%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

72%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

37%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

14%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

64%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

28%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

59%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.90 · 169 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.22 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + Internacional de Bogota defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

42%

level

28%

Independiente Medellin scores more

30%

Internacional de Bogota at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff