Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter Turku vs FF Jaro — Veikkausliiga 2026

Inter Turku
Inter Turku
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FF Jaro
FF Jaro
L. Essomba 27'
C. Jephta 15'
5/9/2026VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 6Veritas Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Inter Turku53%
×Draw22%
FF Jaro25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Turku
1.99
FF Jaro
1.29

Inter Turku creates 54% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Inter Turku
1.34
FF Jaro
0.94

allows per match

Inter Turku
1.64
FF Jaro
2.64

finishing

Inter Turku-0.34scores less
FF Jaro+0.06on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

FF Jaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw
75%
Inter Turku or FF Jaro
78%
Draw or FF Jaro
47%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+
31%
FF Jaro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals
86%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
59%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
32%
FF Jaro 1+ goals
72%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
37%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)
68%
FF Jaro (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.64 · 6 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.64 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 1.34 + FF Jaro defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 1.99

FF Jaro attack 0.94 + Inter Turku defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Inter Turku scores more
53%
level
22%
FF Jaro scores more
25%

Inter Turku at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
A. GranlundInter TurkuInter Turku · D
7.5

Match Events

15'
C. Jephta↳ J. Yli-Kokko
27'
L. Essomba↳ C. Jephta
46'
L. Kuittinen← J. Hamalainen
46'
K. Harden← V. Vuorinen
46'
A. Vidjeskog← O. Kass Kawo
46'
J. Myrevik← A. Bjonback
59'
R. Vikstrom← L. Zetterstrom
68'
J. Laine← J. Yli-Kokko
68'
V. Ulundu← L. Essomba
72'
Rudi Vikstrom
74'
J. Botue← A. Conteh
79'
J. Vikstrom← M. Pedersen
83'
Clinton Jephta
89'
J. Tauriainen← J. Niska
90+4'
Prosper Ahiabu

Possession

57%Inter

Shots

15Inter

Pass accuracy

51%Inter

Statistics

InterFF
Overview
57%Possession43%
15Total Shots9
2.58Expected Goals (xG)1.06
5Corners4
14Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots9
3On Target3
6Off Target3
6Blocked3
13Inside Box4
2Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
549Total Passes410
464Accurate Passes338
85%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Veikkausliiga: Inter Turku 2–0 FF Jaro

Inter Turku beat FF Jaro 2-0 in Veikkausliiga on May 9, 2026.

Goals: C. Jephta (15'), L. Essomba (27').

Inter Turku controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Veritas Stadium in Turku.