FF Jaro 0–1 Inter Turku: Result & Stats

FF Jaro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Inter Turku

M. Sarr 62'

6/1/2025

Veikkausliiga · Round 9Jakobstads Centralplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FF Jaro39%

×Draw23%

Inter Turku38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FF JaroExpected goals in this matchInter Turku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.65

FF Jaro

1.69

Inter Turku

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.83

creates per match

1.54

1.76

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

FF Jaro

1.83

Inter Turku

1.54

allows per match

FF Jaro

1.76

Inter Turku

1.54

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

FF Jaro-0.61scores less

Inter Turku-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

Inter Turku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw

62%

FF Jaro or Inter Turku

77%

Draw or Inter Turku

61%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+

20%

Inter Turku wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals

82%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

50%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

24%

Inter Turku 1+ goals

81%

Inter Turku 2+ goals

49%

Inter Turku 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

51%

Inter Turku (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.76 · 9 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.54 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 1.83 + Inter Turku defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.69

Inter Turku attack 1.54 + FF Jaro defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FF Jaro scores more

39%

level

23%

Inter Turku scores more

38%

FF Jaro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Johan Brunell

44'

Axel Kouame

55'

Erik Gunnarsson

62'

M. Sarr↳ J. Kekarainen

65'

D. Legbo← L. Essomba

69'

S. Izountouemoi← S. Kahkonen

75'

J. Botue← J. Tuominen

78'

A. Vidjeskog← A. Bjorkskog

88'

A. Guei← M. Sarr

FF4-2-3-1

Inter4-3-3

20

⚽

▼

Sarr

9

▼

Tuominen

23

▼

Essomba

17

Ampofo

25

A

28

2

3

22

5

1

13

66

▼

3

6

40

42

4

95

11

▼

Bjorkskog

21

Myrevik

10

Eremenko

Manager: Niklas Vidjeskog

69'▲S. Izountouemoi←▼S. Kahkonen

78'▲A. Vidjeskog←▼A. Bjorkskog

FF Jaro substitutes

25Ohberg5Bjonback7Izountouemoi9Valencic15Vikstrom16Vidjeskog17Nyman20Kangaslahti77Ekpenyong

Manager: Vesa-Pekka Vasara

65'▲D. Legbo←▼L. Essomba

75'▲J. Botue←▼J. Tuominen

88'▲A. Guei←▼M. Sarr

Inter Turku substitutes

12Vuorjoki4Vehkonen6Legbo11Botue16Straalman18Eloluoto24Sipola26Guei