Inter Turku 2–1 FF Jaro: Result & Stats

Inter Turku

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FF Jaro

J. Botue 81'

J. Tuominen 61'

M. Ogungbaro 23'

2/28/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Inter Turku65%

×Draw19%

FF Jaro16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter TurkuExpected goals in this matchFF Jaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.02

Inter Turku

2.28

FF Jaro

1.02

Inter Turku creates 124% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

3.00

creates per match

1.22

0.83

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Inter Turku

3.00

FF Jaro

1.22

allows per match

Inter Turku

0.83

FF Jaro

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par

FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

FF Jaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw

84%

Inter Turku or FF Jaro

81%

Draw or FF Jaro

35%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+

42%

FF Jaro wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals

90%

Inter Turku 2+ goals

66%

Inter Turku 3+ goals

39%

FF Jaro 1+ goals

64%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

27%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)

81%

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 3.00 + FF Jaro defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.28

FF Jaro attack 1.22 + Inter Turku defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Inter Turku scores more

65%

level

19%

FF Jaro scores more

16%

Inter Turku at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

M. Ogungbaro

61'

J. Tuominen

81'

J. Botue

Inter

FF

1

Snellman

2

Ness

3

Gunnarsso

4

⚽

8

5

16

11

9

10

15

12

3

4

5

9

⚽

10

22

23

24

27

35

Manager: Vesa-Pekka Vasara

Inter Turku substitutes

1Huuhtanen2Niska11Botue18Saarinen21Kangasniemi26Huovila30Nzoko31Hamalainen32Salonen

Manager: Jens Karlsson

FF Jaro substitutes

36Finell23Kass27Vikstrom17Nyman26Bostrom18Holmang24Lofs31Najafi

Friendlies Clubs: Inter Turku 2–1 FF Jaro

Inter Turku beat FF Jaro 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 28, 2026.

Goals: M. Ogungbaro (23'), J. Tuominen (61'), J. Botue (81').

Inter Turku vs FF Jaro — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Inter Turku 2–1 FF Jaro